Jan 11 2009

The perfect time for a massive Chinese cyber attack

Published by at 6:17 am under Hacker History,Other attacks,US attacks

Predictive analytics: encompasses a variety of techniques from statistics and data mining that analyze current and historical data to make predictions about future events. (courtesy of the wiki)

Last night I was reading Chinese Cyber Nationalism and this section in Chapter Three on the EP-3 incident (Sino-US Hacker War 2001) got me thinking:

“On 26 April, H.U.C [Honker Union of China] announced on its site that Chinese hackers would wage a seven-day self-defense war against American websites.  The major targets included hundreds of American government and military websites.  The attacking time was set at 9:00 PM on 30 April, when a seven-day Labor Day holiday started in China.”

(emphasis mine)

Even from our own little blog on the Chinese hacker attack on CNN that was scheduled for 8:00 pm on 20 April.  In 2008, 20 April was a non-work day in China.

That’s right! Off days, holidays and late at night are the perfect time to cyber mobilize a massive number of people for a “Cyber People’s War”.

Obvious yes…but then where is my attack table for 2009?

2009 China Public Holidays

2009 China Public Holidays

Based on a seven-day workweek, China has one of the most confusing holiday and non-work day systems ever.  Bless the good people at CNReview for providing the calendar above and keeping me from suffering a fatal aneurysm.

So green and blue days are danger and yellow safer. Remember, due to time differences between the US and China, attacks would more than likely begin and end a day before those shown on the Chinese calendar.

We aren’t talking about individual or small group attacks that can occur at anytime, just major efforts by a large number of hackers.  People have to work!  “Sure Xiao Wang, I’d love to join the war against whatever your enraged about at the moment but…I’ve gotta be at work then.”

Attacks will also occur early in the morning for the US (approx 5:00 am – 8:00am) given the EST and PST differences with Beijing.  These are normally 12- 13 hours for the East Coast and 15-16 hours for the West Coast, depending on how daylight saving time matches up.  No DST for China, they don’t play.

Hawaii?  Screw Hawaii! I’m freezing to death here.  They can figure out their own times. :)

Rest of the world, adjust accordingly.

5 responses so far

5 Responses to “The perfect time for a massive Chinese cyber attack”

  1. Jeffreyon 11 Jan 2009 at 6:46 pm

    Nice work, Scott. I like this approach quite a bit. It’ll be fun to monitor actual versus predicted attacks.

  2. Heikeon 12 Jan 2009 at 3:15 am

    Hey Jeffrey,

    Should have used the definition for forecast analysis, damn.

    I once had a boss who told me, “We don’t predict anything, we forecast. Forecasting, just like the weather, allows you to be horribly wrong.” :)

  3. CBRP1R8on 12 Jan 2009 at 9:11 am

    LOL, Yeah but great forecast though. :D

  4. Heikeon 12 Jan 2009 at 10:05 am


    Of course the next attack will now be organized for early in the morning on a workday in China. I’ve got some vicious Karma.

  5. Sergeyon 25 Feb 2009 at 10:14 am

    Действительно интересный блог. Автор, не желаете ли его продать? Свяжитесь со мной – 7812один. Сергей.